Political Transition and Polarization in Ethiopia: Focus on Amhara, Oromo, and Tigray Political Elites since 2018

Abstract

In Ethiopia, political discord and violent power struggles among political elites are the main obstacles to achieving stable political consensus. Since 2018, Ethiopia’s political transition has been hampered by polarization among the political elite, both within and between ethnic groups. This article explores the intra-ethnic political polarization in Ethiopia, with an emphasis on political elites of the Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray regions. Qualitative case study research was used, with primary data collected through key informant interviews and focus group discussions based on purposeful sampling, and secondary data that were analyzed using thematic and content analysis techniques. The findings indicate that since 2018, elite rivalry has persisted as both a change and a continuity in the nation’s political history, undermining democratic transition processes and generating webs of violent conflict. Following the political transition, interconnected and complementary layers of elite polarization emerged, on the path to understanding of political reform measures and the state’s identity. The Amhara, Oromo, and Tigray elites were shown to be in simultaneous, horizontal competition with one another at the inner circle (intra-ethnic level). This intra-triadic antagonism among these elites forced Ethiopia to avoid a politically negotiated, agreement-based transition, thereby delaying the likelihood of a democratic transition. Political-ideological-economic rivalry among elites remained a source and tool of conflict, leading to complex insecurities at the local and national levels and overshadowing the benefits of political reforms. A consensus to maintain the political transition and consolidate democracy requires developing a comprehensive political settlement and dialogue mechanisms that effectively reconcile the divides among Ethiopia's political elites.