Parametrization and Analysis of Effects of Temperature and Humidity on the Development and Survival of Anopheles arabiensis strain, a major Malaria Vector in Ethiopia

Abstract

Temperature and humidity play a pivotal role in shaping various aspects of mosquito vector biology and overall population dynamics. In this study, we parameterized the effects of these environmental factors on the survival rates of aquatic stages and adult mosquito vectors. For each developmental stage, the temperature and combined effects were modeled using polynomial functions of degree two or three. The parameterization relied on life table data from the Tropical Infectious Disease Research Center (TIDRC) at Jimma University. Model accuracy was assessed using R-squared, adjusted R-squared, p-values, and F-statistics, calculated in Python, validating robustness and alignment with experimental data. We analyzed the relationship between modeled adult mosquito populations and five-year average malaria incidence (2018–2023) in the Jimma Zone, southwest Ethiopia, and confirmed a positive correlation. Moreover, the results of this study showed that mosquito survival is strongly influenced by temperature and humidity, with each life stage having distinct optimal conditions. Eggs, larvae, and pupae required at least 60% humidity, with peak survival at 28°C, 30°C, and 27°C, respectively. Adult mosquitoes thrived between 22°C and 32°C, with a maximum lifespan of 25. These findings highlight the critical role of environmental factors in mosquito development and malaria transmission. These models obtained for the life stages offer valuable tools for understanding vector ecology and optimizing malaria control strategies in the face of climate change. They also highlight future work focusing on developing a comprehensive mathematical model of malaria incidence that integrates the parameterization established in this study.